John Murphy, Bank of America auto analyst, speaks at an Automotive Press Association event in Farmington Hills, Mich. (SME Media photo)
FARMINGTON HILLS, Mich. -- A strike by the United Auto Workers union against one of the Detroit-area automakers is almost a certainty, an industry analyst said today.
“Odds of a strike are better than 90%,” John Murphy, auto analyst for Bank of America, said during a presentation of the Automotive Press Association in Farmington Hills, Mich.
The U.S. labor contracts for General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co., and Stellantis expire on Sept. 14. Stellantis includes operations of the former Chrysler Corp.
“We expect a strike on Sept. 15, which will probably be Stellantis,” Murphy said.
Typically, the Detroit-based union selects one of the three companies as a “target” and concentrates initial bargaining efforts there. The UAW then seeks to duplicate the basic terms of an agreement at the other two automakers.
Shawn Fain, the new UAW president, said at an April APA presentation the union would play tough in this round of talks.
“Everything is on the table,” Fain said at that time. “We’re going to take a different approach on everything. The status quo was not working for us.”
Fain specifically criticized how the companies have closed plants while earning profits. Stellantis shut down a Jeep plant in Belvidere, Illinois, earlier this year, laying off about 1,200 workers.
During today’s APA event, Murphy said he expects Stellantis to be the target automaker. A strike, he said, could last one to two months.
“He’s not kidding,” Murphy said of Fain.
The analyst added that the UAW may still conduct an additional walkout at either GM or Ford.
The potential of a strike “at one or two of the next companies is much higher than normal,” Murphy said.
Also at the presentation, Murphy said:
--He expects Telsa Inc. to hold 18% of the U.S. electric vehicle market by 2026, with GM and Ford each reaching 14% as their new EV offerings reach customers.
A year ago, Murphy had forecast Telsa’s share would fall to 11% by 2025. Tesla has managed to defend its market share by reducing prices, he said.
--The auto industry is recovering from semiconductor shortages, tight vehicle supplies and other issues.
“I think we’re on the verge of some really great times in the industry,” Murphy said.
