2023 (And Beyond) Industry Outlook
What’s next for additive manufacturing? How fast will it grow, and what new applications are the most promising? Product development and manufacturing professionals across various sectors are eager for information to anticipate how the technology and its application will continue to develop as they consider adoption and investment strategies.
While no one knows the future with 100% certainty, simply extending growth trend lines is a good place to start. And an even clearer outlook is possible based on decades of experience, information, and data, which Wohlers Associates incorporates into our annual AM industry report, which was first published in 1996.
It is important to consider a range of factors when anticipating the future development of AM. Considerations include the health of the global economy, expected adoption plans by industrial sectors, and new and potential “game-changing” developments in machines, materials, software, and applications.
The chart above shows the historical growth through 2022, derived from hard data received from hundreds of companies worldwide, as well as our own forecasts. Based on this information, Wohlers Associates expects the AM industry to exceed $100 billion for the first time in 2032—that’s about a sixfold increase over 2022 levels!
What’s behind the numbers? Investors and organizations adopting AM also want to know what’s driving the steep growth projections. For starters, AM is expected to become a more common method of end-use part production, which will help fuel growth. For this to occur, systems will become much faster, which will reduce the production cost per part. Build time is a large contributor to part cost, so doubling the speed of a machine is almost like getting two parts for the price of one.
If system manufacturers can deliver on their promises, the AM industry could benefit from the game-changing solutions it has been seeking. It certainly changes the equation when determining whether AM is a fit for a production application.
The use of AM for custom, personalized, one-off, and limited-edition products is expanding. We are seeing an impressive range of parts and products made for footwear, eyewear, jewelry, and other consumer products. Add to this the wide range of custom jigs, fixtures, guides, gauges, and other types of factory tooling that countless companies are producing routinely.
For more than a decade, the automotive industry has been expected to adopt AM more widely for series production applications. But costs were simply too high for mainstream cars and trucks. California-based Divergent Technologies Inc. is working hard to change this. It already is 3D printing and shipping a 30-kg aluminum chassis to Aston Martin, and the company is working on more than 20 additional automotive platforms.
Additional growth will be driven by a range of industrial sectors, including aerospace, healthcare, military, and drones for a wide range of applications, coupled with innovative business models and sustainability. Machines that produce large parts and structures, particularly directed energy deposition systems, are gaining traction and likely to contribute to industry-wide growth over the next several years.
In 2022, for the second consecutive year, polymer powders exceeded the photopolymers segment. Historically, the photopolymer segment has been the largest, due in part to its popularity for prototyping and other applications. Powder-bed fusion is believed to be the most popular process for end-use part production, so the recent growth in powders points to a strong adoption of AM for production applications.
In 2020, photopolymers and polymer filaments were equal in market share. Metal has been available for about half of the industry’s 35-year history and represented 18.2% of total materials revenue in 2022. The “Other” segment includes ceramics, waxes, and materials for binder jetting and sheet lamination.
Several obstacles have and will continue to impact the growth of AM. The cost of industrial machines and materials remains significant because both are still relatively expensive. Materials especially affect manufacturing costs as part volumes increase. In low quantities, material cost is much less of a factor.
The post processing of parts, and the labor associated with it, can typically represent as much as 30% of the total cost of an AM part. In some cases, especially with metal parts, it can account for even more. Automation can help, but upfront costs can also be expensive, especially when manufacturing volumes are low.
Design for AM (DfAM) is an expense that the inexperienced often overlook—but such neglect can make it impossible to build a strong business case in favor of AM. An example of DfAM is consolidating multiple parts into one, thus eliminating manufacturing processes, inventory, assembly, maintenance, and certification paperwork. Methods of DfAM can improve product performance and reduce material and weight, sometimes significantly.
Anyone can make a prediction, but it’s much more impressive—and difficult—to do it accurately. The 3D printing of food, personalized medicine, and electronics may not become mainstream by 2032, but such applications could gain traction by then. Several companies are in the early stages of printing food products, both from plants and living cells from animals. A handful of companies are testing the printing of medicine, but only one (Aprecia Pharmaceuticals) has commercialized a product. The printing of efficient circuit boards may be further down the road but using AM to make sensors, antennas, and other electronic-related devices is currently underway.
Imagine a future of printing batteries and explosives by the military, digitizing and printing large aircraft structures, and 3D building helmets for a wide range of applications. The possibilities are almost endless.
The printing of spare parts for the human body may be the holy grail, at least in a metaphorical sense. If someone loses a finger, a new one is printed using living cells from the patient. If a heart value is damaged, a patient-specific version is printed and implanted. As we age, body parts will be swapped out with new ones. Complete organs and limbs may be further into the future, but skin, bone, teeth, and cartilage are on the horizon.
Some of what we envision may not happen in our lifetime or at all. The building blocks, however, are in place for most of it to occur. It is largely a matter of ingenuity, funding, hard work, and determination.
* Editor’s note: The preceding information was excerpted from the Wohlers Report 2023
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