STERLING HEIGHTS, Mich. -- Automakers may fall short of their targets for electric vehicles, an auto industry forecaster said today.
Some automakers say they intend to go all-electric in the coming years. General Motors Co., for example, has set a target of being all-electric by 2035. Other companies have also set high targets.
“That is not possible,” Casey Selecman, director of powertrain forecasting at Auto Forecast Solutions, said of such goals.
Selecman spoke at the grand opening of the Michigan Technical Center of YCM Alliance in Sterling Heights, Mich.
The forecaster said supplies of materials such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel will hold back the expansion of EV production.
“We’re going to see massive price increases in lithium,” Selecman said. “We’re going to see shortages in lithium.”
According to AFS, automakers’ plans would mean that EVs would account for 92% of vehicle production by 2040. The forecasting firm estimates that 55% is more likely. “That may be a bit of a stretch,” Selecman said.
Automakers, he added, will still need to maintain traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) technology. “There’s a tremendous risk in not holding onto that ICE expertise.”
The forecaster also said the cost of new and used vehicles continues to rise. Chinese automakers may come to the U.S. in the coming years with less-expensive vehicles to fill the gap.
The YCM Alliance event is scheduled for two days. It includes a series of presentations covering subjects such as machining and dealing with the skilled labor gap.
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