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Teal Group Predicts Worldwide Drone Spending of $150 Billion Over the Next Decade

By Cameron Kerkau Associate Editor, SME Media
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Teal Group is forecasting dynamic growth in Civil Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) over the next decade. The aerospace and defense market analysis firm, based in Fairfax, Va., released it’s 2023/2024 World Civil UAS Market Profile and Forecast yesterday, predicting significant rewards for smart investments but advising caution and careful research as some sectors mature faster than anticipated.

According to the report, Teal forecasts non-military UAS production will jump from $8.2 billion market in 2023 to $19.5 billion by 2032, a 10.1 percent compound annual growth rate in constant dollars. Over the next 10 years the market will total $149.8 billion, says Teal Group.

"UAS has been a boom market with possibilities that appeared limitless. It's entered the shakeout phase, particularly since some markets have become saturated, and others so dominated by a single company that competition is difficult," says Jeremiah Gertler, Teal Group's senior analyst and author of the study. "In much of the world, growth markets are turning to commodity replacement markets where producers compete with the local used drone lot, and some companies see that as their cue to exit."

Commercial use will drive the market as major corporations are best positioned to take advantage when regulations finally lock in, according to Teal Group. "At the same time, the consumer market skipped right through adolescence to maturity, leading UAS manufacturers to search upmarket for their next big opportunity. That means more focus on more sophisticated, higher-value units, but also more competition in narrower niches," Gertler added.

The report projects growth opportunities will be spread unevenly across that market. Delivery is expected to be the leading sector in the U.S. by 2030, but Agriculture will lead overseas thanks to heavy Chinese investment in subsidizing agricultural drone spraying. Industrial inspection has emerged as a major commercial drone market and construction will be the largest portion of that market, according to the Teal study.

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