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Airbus Predicts 20-Year $4.4 Trillion Commercial Jet Market

 

Demand in India and China, low-fare airlines drive growth for more and bigger planes.


Bloomberg News (9/25, Wall) reported that John Leahy, Airbus’s Chief Operating Officer for Customers, predicts that by 2032, the Asia-Pacific region will lead the world in traffic. The article also said “Airlines will buy 29,220 planes to satisfy 4.7 percent in annual traffic growth, Airbus said in its annual industry-wide forecast today. The prediction, which includes 28,350 passenger jets, is 3.6 percent higher than a year earlier.”

Airbus predicts the global fleet will grow to 36, 560 aircraft in 2032 from its current level of 17, 740. The article also noted that Boeing’s forecast was for 35,260 planes for a total value of $4.8 trillion. The highest growth rate is predicted to be in India, increasing by 10%, with China and Brazil forecast to grow 7 percent. 71 percent of deliveries will be single aisle planes, mostly to low-fare carriers.

Assembly of the first A380 for South Korea’s Asiana Airlines is now underway: Airbus predicts more A380s will be delivered to Asia-Pacific in the next 20 years.

In separate reporting from TravelDailyAsia (9/25, Elliott), reports Airbus predicts airlines will demand larger aircraft to increase traffic and improve operational efficiency. The article noted that “Airbus said that the average size of aircraft has increased 25% over the past 20 years, and predicted that twin-aisle aircraft will account for approximately 60% of the total value of new aircraft sales between now and 2032.”

Possibly confirming some of the trends towards single aisle and low-fares, Bloomberg (9/25, Wang) reports that Airbus won orders 43 Planes from two Chinese start-ups. One is identified as Qindao Airlines, who agreed to buy 23 A320s for $2.26 billion (based on list prices.) The other is Zhejiang Loong Airlines, who agreed to purchase 20 A320s. The article stated “Qingdao Airlines’ order includes 18 A320neos, a re-engined version of the single-aisle jet, according to an e-mailed statement from Airbus yesterday. Zhejiang Loong’s purchase will have nine neos, the planemaker said in a separate statement.”


Published Date : 10/7/2013

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