Boeing Raises Twenty-Year Commercial Jet Forecast
Company projects a market close to $5 trillion, with increased demand for single-aisle aircraft and more fuel-efficient airplanes.
In a press release dated June 11, 2013, Boeing painted a rosy picture for commercial aircraft, predicting 35,000 new airplanes in the next 20 years. The press release noted that “The single-aisle market, served by Boeing's Next-Generation 737 and the future 737 MAX, is the main driver of the forecast and continues to show strength. 24,670 new airplanes will be needed in this segment due to the growth of low-cost carriers and airlines from emerging markets…. After facing high and volatile fuel prices and a highly competitive environment, airlines have been forced to change the way they manage their business..”
Bloomberg News (6/12, Black, Johnsson) reports on the release, with quotes from Richard Aboulafia, an analyst with the Teal Group, “warned inexpensive financing and oil prices could change these numbers. Meanwhile, Howard Rubel, an analyst with Jefferies LLC, predicted that Boeing and Airbus would continue to dominate the market as new entrants are just starting to come to the market.
The AP (6/12) reports that speaking ahead of the Bourget international air show in Paris, Tinseth, “said rising oil prices are forcing carriers to think harder about efficiency, and that means smaller planes that burn less fuel.” That “also means design changes, streamlined air traffic control and improved navigation to shave miles (kilometers) off each flight.” The AP notes, “The demand for fuel efficiency has eaten away at orders for the wide-body long haul carriers that are major profit-drivers for Boeing and Airbus, the world’s two biggest aircraft manufacturers.”
On its website, FOX News Business (6/11, Bootan) reports, “Boeing expects to make the most money from single-aisle jets, which are planes with anywhere from 90 to 230 seats like the 737 MAX, which it says it the ‘main driver of the forecast and continues to show strength.’” The company “sees deliveries in that market rising to 24,670 over the next 20 years, a total value of $2.29 trillion.” Boeing “sees the largest demand coming out of Asia-Pacific, with deliveries expected to reach 12,820 over the next two decades as demand in rapidly expanding regions like China crave more demand and business travel.”